Daily Forex Strategies – The Complete Forex Trading Course

All About Forex Price Action Trading

Trading Forex doesn't have to be complicated. In fact, it's best to keep things as simple as possible. That's why price action trading was a great fit for me and is becoming more popular every day. This community exists to discuss Forex price action trading to include, price action strategies, key market levels, trade setups or anything else related to price action trading. Feel free to join the conversation!
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Algorithmic Trading

A place for redditors to discuss quantitative trading, statistical methods, econometrics, programming, implementation, automated strategies, and bounce ideas off each other for constructive criticism. Feel free to submit papers/links of things you find interesting.
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Make 100 Pips Daily With a Very Simple Set and Forget Forex Strategy – Ideal For Those With 9-5 Jobs

Make 100 Pips Daily With a Very Simple Set and Forget Forex Strategy – Ideal For Those With 9-5 Jobs submitted by ososru to Bitcoin4free [link] [comments]

Make 100 Pips Daily With a Very Simple Set and Forget Forex Strategy – Ideal For Those With 9-5 Jobs

Make 100 Pips Daily With a Very Simple Set and Forget Forex Strategy – Ideal For Those With 9-5 Jobs submitted by Rufflenator to 3bitcoins [link] [comments]

Morning exercise: If p =0.25 is the probability of hiting a forex limit order during a particular week , what is the total probability distribution if we trading 6 pairs with same strategies** ( **obsevingn 5 years of daily data we buy or sell on. ly 25% of the time)

Morning exercise: If p =0.25 is the probability of hiting a forex limit order during a particular week , what is the total probability distribution if we trading 6 pairs with same strategies** ( **obsevingn 5 years of daily data we buy or sell on. ly 25% of the time) submitted by mgtrades to Forex [link] [comments]

Im picof matthew, a grade 2 forex trader and a trading agent. Are you interested in crypto or forex trading? I trade for individuals who are interested and make huge profits 10.5% daily/ 60% weekly. You can copy all my trades with the signals and learn all my strategies. If you Are interested

Im picof matthew, a grade 2 forex trader and a trading agent. Are you interested in crypto or forex trading? I trade for individuals who are interested and make huge profits 10.5% daily/ 60% weekly. You can copy all my trades with the signals and learn all my strategies. If you Are interested submitted by ABitcoinAllBot to BitcoinAll [link] [comments]

Weekend offer expires soon! $15 - 1 month + 1 month bonus EXPRESS FOREX SIGNALS $50 - 1 year + 3 month bonus EXPRESS FOREX SIGNALS only $400 - #1 TRADING STRATEGY + 3 MONTH PRACTICE (avg. 7% profit daily, 96% accuracy)

Weekend offer expires soon! $15 - 1 month + 1 month bonus EXPRESS FOREX SIGNALS $50 - 1 year + 3 month bonus EXPRESS FOREX SIGNALS only $400 - #1 TRADING STRATEGY + 3 MONTH PRACTICE (avg. 7% profit daily, 96% accuracy) submitted by DailyProfit4Life to u/DailyProfit4Life [link] [comments]

Best Free Daily Forex Signals on Elliott Wave Analysis, Chart Strategy - USD, EUR, JPY, GBP, CAD, AUD - Action Forex

submitted by ageanvelos to Economist [link] [comments]

People who regurgitate Warren Buffets Long Term Investing strategy over successful day trading are delusional here's why.

It bugs me when people say warren buffets idea of investing which is hold long term and put in sp500 and that you can't beat the 10% returns of the sp500. People don't realize that he is referring to people with HUGE CAPITAL. When you are working with 50k it's different than trading 50 million. I can very well make 15% in a month with 50k but would differently not be able to replicate that with a 50 million account. He even said it himself
"if I was running $1 million today, or $10 million for that matter, I’d be fully invested. Anyone who says that size does not hurt investment performance is selling. The highest rates of return I’ve ever achieved were in the 1950s. I killed the Dow. You ought to see the numbers. But I was investing peanuts then. It’s a huge structural advantage not to have a lot of money. I think I could make you 50% a year on $1 million. No, I know I could. I guarantee that.”
Then when I tell people I make 10% on 50k a month I get the stupid comments
"iF yoU MAke 10% a mOntH YoU wOulD be A BiiLlIonaire iN just 4 YeArS"
But it just doesn't work that way.
The magic of Buffett’s strategy is its ability to scale. When Buffett makes 20%, he can do it on $150 thousand or $150 million or $150 billion. This is not true for ordinary traders! And Defiantly not me.
My end goal is to reach a number in which when get there I would be fully retired because although day trading is definitely more free and rewarding than working a standard job at the end of day you are still working. Once I reach my end goal through real estate and yes Long term investing with sp500 I would be better off getting my 5- 10% annually on my main account than my day trading account 50k and making 7-10k a month until then I will day trade as its the most rewarding way I can make money and currently defiantly more the sp500 can make.
submitted by Greymatter1399 to Forex [link] [comments]

Max Keiser has opened my eyes to the goals behind the daily stories of international financiers. Gold grabs, currency wars, forex runs he shows the big strategies behind the events.

Max Keiser has opened my eyes to the goals behind the effrots of internetional financiers.
http://rt.com/programs/keiser-report/
He tells you behind the scenes numbers and events that most others don't report .
For instance he has added up all the gold supplies of the euro nations and predicted the debt holders would demand the gold as collateral for the next round of "debt relief" and he was right.
He shows the debt issues for what they are - nothing to do with finance or anything except a legal grab for the hard assets of euro nations.
He also covered the jpmorgan debt backed control of Alabama city water supplies which no one else has made the connection about.
He understands that the finance tools are means to acheive other objectives not the repayment of the debts becuas ehe was a financier.
all the other reporters niavely discuss debt and repayment as if that is the objective.
listen to some of his shows.
his discussions of Jamie dimon and others are extremely enlightening.
He is also the only one who has pointed out that England debt to GDP ratio is 6x worse than the USA when we had the first crisis.
also that it was through London offices becuase of their lax laws that all major crooked financing has occured
Lehman, goldman, Madoff, MFGlobal all had the bad stuff done through london.
just read these show summaries and watch them. yes he is unbridled in his criticism but isn't that GOOD.
http://rt.com/programs/keiser-report/ "12.01.2012 04:00 19 comments Episode 235 ­Every week Max Keiser looks at all the scandal behind the financial news headlines. In this episode, Max Keiser and co-host Stacy Herbert discuss death by a thousand revelations and destroying the City to save the City. In the second half of the show, Max talks to author Nomi Prins, a former investment banker, about the role of JP Morgan in Jon Corzine’s MF Global crime.
10.01.2012 03:00 21 comments Episode 234 ­Every week Max Keiser looks at all the scandal behind the financial news headlines. In this episode, Max Keiser and co-host, Stacy Herbert, discuss copyright and how Hollywood cons Congress by using Wall Street accounting. In the second half of the show, Max talks to Amir Taaki about hackers, piracy, technology and bitcoin. 07.01.2012 09:30 6 comments Episode 233 ­Every week Max Keiser looks at all the scandal behind the financial news headlines. In this episode Max Keiser and co-host, Stacy Herbert, discuss Brits using payday loans to pay off interest-only mortgages while Greeks bury their cash for fear of being Gaddafi’d by the banksters. In the second half of the show, Max talks to David Morgan of Silver-Investor.com about silver, Sprott and bonds.
05.01.2012 04:00 18 comments Episode 232 ­In this episode of the Keiser Report Max Keiser and co-host, Stacy Herbert, discuss big lies, big cojones and the government eating your homework. In the second half of the show, they discuss Obama’s request for $3 from Stacy while signing an order allowing him to indefinitely detain her and the Princeton students mic-checking JP Morgan. 03.01.2012 03:00 19 comments Episode 231 ­This week Max Keiser and co-host, Stacy Herbert, present an Eastern European special looking at Swiss franc mortgages in Hungary, bank runs in Latvia and the wisdom of austerity. In the second half of the show, Max talks to economist, Professor Constantin Gurdgiev, about the outlook for the Russian economy and banking sector in the event of a Eurozone collapse and also about what austerity has...
31.12.2011 09:30 14 comments Episode 230 ­In this episode Max Keiser and co-host, Stacy Herbert, present a New Year’s special featuring outrageous predictions, bloopers and Berlusconi’s 2012 Bunga Bunga Guide to finance. They look back to some 2010 predictions that came true in 2011 and look at the future of European bank runs, rising US treasury yields and the Jim Rogers – Marc Faber Chinese showdown. 28.12.2011 16:53 36 comments Episode 229 ­This week Max Keiser and co-host Stacy Herbert present London brokers shrinking, boycotting JP Morgan, boycotting the financial system and command and control credit derivatives. In the second half of the show, Max talks to JS Kim of SmartknowledgeU about the MF Global fraud, and gold and silver.
27.12.2011 03:00 17 comments Episode 228 ­This week Max Keiser and co-host Stacy Herbert present their bah-humbug special, taking a closer look at claims that the top 1% have more ‘skin’ in the game. They'll also question the intentions of the 'well-meaning' people who drive Kenyans off their land, and could be doing more harm than good with malaria vaccines. They also talk to independent journalist, Thomas C. Mountain, about charity... 24.12.2011 09:30 41 comments Episode 227 This week Max Keiser and co-host, Stacy Herbert, look back on 2011 from GIABO to Tango Down, with the fight against bankster occupation setting the global agenda. From the banking scandal headlines they move to Greek woes, suckling bankers and Blythe Masters’ immaculately conceived Credit Default Swap. They also discuss the circle of Hell that former prosecutor William K. Black suggests is just...
22.12.2011 04:00 15 comments Episode 226 ­This week Max Keiser and co-host, Stacy Herbert, after revealing that the Lizard King is back, discuss the radical redistribution of gold and silver holdings in the US and the radical experiment in the UK to have capitalism without capital. In the second half of the show, Max talks to Professor Steve Keen about the UK’s financial sector debt which is at least four times larger than America’s... "
submitted by georedd to conspiracy [link] [comments]

Max Keiser has opened my eyes to the goals behind the daily stories of international financiers. Gold grabs, currency wars, forex runs he shows the big strategies behind the events.

Max Keiser has opened my eyes to the goals behind the effrots of internetional financiers.
http://rt.com/programs/keiser-report/
He tells you behind the scenes numbers and events that most others don't report .
For instance he has added up all the gold supplies of the euro nations and predicted the debt holders would demand the gold as collateral for the next round of "debt relief" and he was right.
He shows the debt issues for what they are - nothing to do with finance or anything except a legal grab for the hard assets of euro nations.
He also covered the jpmorgan debt backed control of Alabama city water supplies which no one else has made the connection about.
He understands that the finance tools are means to acheive other objectives not the repayment of the debts becuas ehe was a financier.
all the other reporters niavely discuss debt and repayment as if that is the objective.
listen to some of his shows.
his discussions of Jamie dimon and others are extremely enlightening.
He is also the only one who has pointed out that England debt to GDP ratio is 6x worse than the USA when we had the first crisis.
also that it was through London offices becuase of their lax laws that all major crooked financing has occured
Lehman, goldman, Madoff, MFGlobal all had the bad stuff done through london.
just read these show summaries and watch them. yes he is unbridled in his criticism but isn't that GOOD.
http://rt.com/programs/keiser-report/ "12.01.2012 04:00 19 comments Episode 235 ­Every week Max Keiser looks at all the scandal behind the financial news headlines. In this episode, Max Keiser and co-host Stacy Herbert discuss death by a thousand revelations and destroying the City to save the City. In the second half of the show, Max talks to author Nomi Prins, a former investment banker, about the role of JP Morgan in Jon Corzine’s MF Global crime.
10.01.2012 03:00 21 comments Episode 234 ­Every week Max Keiser looks at all the scandal behind the financial news headlines. In this episode, Max Keiser and co-host, Stacy Herbert, discuss copyright and how Hollywood cons Congress by using Wall Street accounting. In the second half of the show, Max talks to Amir Taaki about hackers, piracy, technology and bitcoin. 07.01.2012 09:30 6 comments Episode 233 ­Every week Max Keiser looks at all the scandal behind the financial news headlines. In this episode Max Keiser and co-host, Stacy Herbert, discuss Brits using payday loans to pay off interest-only mortgages while Greeks bury their cash for fear of being Gaddafi’d by the banksters. In the second half of the show, Max talks to David Morgan of Silver-Investor.com about silver, Sprott and bonds.
05.01.2012 04:00 18 comments Episode 232 ­In this episode of the Keiser Report Max Keiser and co-host, Stacy Herbert, discuss big lies, big cojones and the government eating your homework. In the second half of the show, they discuss Obama’s request for $3 from Stacy while signing an order allowing him to indefinitely detain her and the Princeton students mic-checking JP Morgan. 03.01.2012 03:00 19 comments Episode 231 ­This week Max Keiser and co-host, Stacy Herbert, present an Eastern European special looking at Swiss franc mortgages in Hungary, bank runs in Latvia and the wisdom of austerity. In the second half of the show, Max talks to economist, Professor Constantin Gurdgiev, about the outlook for the Russian economy and banking sector in the event of a Eurozone collapse and also about what austerity has...
31.12.2011 09:30 14 comments Episode 230 ­In this episode Max Keiser and co-host, Stacy Herbert, present a New Year’s special featuring outrageous predictions, bloopers and Berlusconi’s 2012 Bunga Bunga Guide to finance. They look back to some 2010 predictions that came true in 2011 and look at the future of European bank runs, rising US treasury yields and the Jim Rogers – Marc Faber Chinese showdown. 28.12.2011 16:53 36 comments Episode 229 ­This week Max Keiser and co-host Stacy Herbert present London brokers shrinking, boycotting JP Morgan, boycotting the financial system and command and control credit derivatives. In the second half of the show, Max talks to JS Kim of SmartknowledgeU about the MF Global fraud, and gold and silver.
27.12.2011 03:00 17 comments Episode 228 ­This week Max Keiser and co-host Stacy Herbert present their bah-humbug special, taking a closer look at claims that the top 1% have more ‘skin’ in the game. They'll also question the intentions of the 'well-meaning' people who drive Kenyans off their land, and could be doing more harm than good with malaria vaccines. They also talk to independent journalist, Thomas C. Mountain, about charity... 24.12.2011 09:30 41 comments Episode 227 This week Max Keiser and co-host, Stacy Herbert, look back on 2011 from GIABO to Tango Down, with the fight against bankster occupation setting the global agenda. From the banking scandal headlines they move to Greek woes, suckling bankers and Blythe Masters’ immaculately conceived Credit Default Swap. They also discuss the circle of Hell that former prosecutor William K. Black suggests is just...
22.12.2011 04:00 15 comments Episode 226 ­This week Max Keiser and co-host, Stacy Herbert, after revealing that the Lizard King is back, discuss the radical redistribution of gold and silver holdings in the US and the radical experiment in the UK to have capitalism without capital. In the second half of the show, Max talks to Professor Steve Keen about the UK’s financial sector debt which is at least four times larger than America’s... "
submitted by georedd to UncensoredPolitics [link] [comments]

Max Keiser has opened my eyes to the goals behind the daily stories of international financiers. Gold grabs, currency wars, forex runs he shows the big strategies behind the events.

Max Keiser has opened my eyes to the goals behind the effrots of internetional financiers.
http://rt.com/programs/keiser-report/
He tells you behind the scenes numbers and events that most others don't report .
For instance he has added up all the gold supplies of the euro nations and predicted the debt holders would demand the gold as collateral for the next round of "debt relief" and he was right.
He shows the debt issues for what they are - nothing to do with finance or anything except a legal grab for the hard assets of euro nations.
He also covered the jpmorgan debt backed control of Alabama city water supplies which no one else has made the connection about.
He understands that the finance tools are means to acheive other objectives not the repayment of the debts becuas ehe was a financier.
all the other reporters niavely discuss debt and repayment as if that is the objective.
listen to some of his shows.
his discussions of Jamie dimon and others are extremely enlightening.
He is also the only one who has pointed out that England debt to GDP ratio is 6x worse than the USA when we had the first crisis.
also that it was through London offices becuase of their lax laws that all major crooked financing has occured
Lehman, goldman, Madoff, MFGlobal all had the bad stuff done through london.
just read these show summaries and watch them. yes he is unbridled in his criticism but isn't that GOOD.
http://rt.com/programs/keiser-report/ "12.01.2012 04:00 19 comments Episode 235 ­Every week Max Keiser looks at all the scandal behind the financial news headlines. In this episode, Max Keiser and co-host Stacy Herbert discuss death by a thousand revelations and destroying the City to save the City. In the second half of the show, Max talks to author Nomi Prins, a former investment banker, about the role of JP Morgan in Jon Corzine’s MF Global crime.
10.01.2012 03:00 21 comments Episode 234 ­Every week Max Keiser looks at all the scandal behind the financial news headlines. In this episode, Max Keiser and co-host, Stacy Herbert, discuss copyright and how Hollywood cons Congress by using Wall Street accounting. In the second half of the show, Max talks to Amir Taaki about hackers, piracy, technology and bitcoin. 07.01.2012 09:30 6 comments Episode 233 ­Every week Max Keiser looks at all the scandal behind the financial news headlines. In this episode Max Keiser and co-host, Stacy Herbert, discuss Brits using payday loans to pay off interest-only mortgages while Greeks bury their cash for fear of being Gaddafi’d by the banksters. In the second half of the show, Max talks to David Morgan of Silver-Investor.com about silver, Sprott and bonds.
05.01.2012 04:00 18 comments Episode 232 ­In this episode of the Keiser Report Max Keiser and co-host, Stacy Herbert, discuss big lies, big cojones and the government eating your homework. In the second half of the show, they discuss Obama’s request for $3 from Stacy while signing an order allowing him to indefinitely detain her and the Princeton students mic-checking JP Morgan. 03.01.2012 03:00 19 comments Episode 231 ­This week Max Keiser and co-host, Stacy Herbert, present an Eastern European special looking at Swiss franc mortgages in Hungary, bank runs in Latvia and the wisdom of austerity. In the second half of the show, Max talks to economist, Professor Constantin Gurdgiev, about the outlook for the Russian economy and banking sector in the event of a Eurozone collapse and also about what austerity has...
31.12.2011 09:30 14 comments Episode 230 ­In this episode Max Keiser and co-host, Stacy Herbert, present a New Year’s special featuring outrageous predictions, bloopers and Berlusconi’s 2012 Bunga Bunga Guide to finance. They look back to some 2010 predictions that came true in 2011 and look at the future of European bank runs, rising US treasury yields and the Jim Rogers – Marc Faber Chinese showdown. 28.12.2011 16:53 36 comments Episode 229 ­This week Max Keiser and co-host Stacy Herbert present London brokers shrinking, boycotting JP Morgan, boycotting the financial system and command and control credit derivatives. In the second half of the show, Max talks to JS Kim of SmartknowledgeU about the MF Global fraud, and gold and silver.
27.12.2011 03:00 17 comments Episode 228 ­This week Max Keiser and co-host Stacy Herbert present their bah-humbug special, taking a closer look at claims that the top 1% have more ‘skin’ in the game. They'll also question the intentions of the 'well-meaning' people who drive Kenyans off their land, and could be doing more harm than good with malaria vaccines. They also talk to independent journalist, Thomas C. Mountain, about charity... 24.12.2011 09:30 41 comments Episode 227 This week Max Keiser and co-host, Stacy Herbert, look back on 2011 from GIABO to Tango Down, with the fight against bankster occupation setting the global agenda. From the banking scandal headlines they move to Greek woes, suckling bankers and Blythe Masters’ immaculately conceived Credit Default Swap. They also discuss the circle of Hell that former prosecutor William K. Black suggests is just...
22.12.2011 04:00 15 comments Episode 226 ­This week Max Keiser and co-host, Stacy Herbert, after revealing that the Lizard King is back, discuss the radical redistribution of gold and silver holdings in the US and the radical experiment in the UK to have capitalism without capital. In the second half of the show, Max talks to Professor Steve Keen about the UK’s financial sector debt which is at least four times larger than America’s... "
submitted by georedd to occupywallstreet [link] [comments]

New to Trading? Here's some tips

So there seems to be a lot of new people on this sub. And makes sense if you have questions a lot of time you'll turn to reddit for the answers (I know I do). Well here are some tips that I think would benefit new traders.
  1. Don't trade ANY Euro pairs. Look I know it's the most traded pair it goes up and down really fast and there's so much potential for you to make money. Turns out there's even more for you to lose money. It's way too volatile specially if you don't know what you're doing. EUUSD is the worst offender.
  2. Trade the Daily. Might think you're cool looking at charts every x amount of times during the day. You get to tell your friends and family that you trade all day and they might be impressed at what you're doing but unless you have some years under you stick to the daily. There's less noise. You can see clearer trends and when you don't stare at the screen all day you're less emotional therefore a more effective trader. I only look at the chart 15 minutes a day to either enter close or manage my trades. Whatever happens when I'm gone is what happens.
  3. There is no holy grail indicator Look for it all you want. It doesn't exist. There are good indicators. There are bad indicators. There are some indicators that are so broken if you do the opposite of what they're intended for you'll actually make a profit. But the fact remains that there's no perfect one. Stop looking. What you should be looking for is an indicator that fits with your strategy.
  4. What currencies to pick. I actually never see this brought up. The notion in forex is that all pairs can be traded equally. To a certain extent that's not false. But until you get the hang of it stick to a strict trading diet. Look for pairs that trend a lot. Duh look for the trend I can hear you say. When I say trend I don't mean a couple of days or weeks. I mean a couple of months. Half a year. Pairs that do that have a higher tendency to stick with one direction for a while. That's where you make your money. An easy way to identify those pairs as well is putting together a volatile currency (USD) with a less volatile one(JPY).
  5. USE YOUR SL Trust me even if not putting a SL has netted you all kinds of gains eventually the market will turn around and bite you. With no safety net you'll lose most if not all your profit. The best offense is a good defense.
  6. How to pick your TP and SL level. Most new traders care so much about that. I put it near the bottom because in my opinion you should know everything listed first. This is my opinion and I use it for my strategy I use the ATR(average true range) indicator. It's a really helpful tool that helps you identify the range at which the candles will either rise or fall. Obviously you want to set your TP inside of that range and your SL slightly outside of it.
  7. Lot sizes. Everyone has a different story about how they pick their lot size. The general consensus is don't risk over 2% of your account. But I'm a simple man and I can't be bothered to figure out what my risk is every single time. So what I do is I put $0.10 for every $100 I have on the account. I then assign $300(minimum) to each pair. That's $0.30 per pair. It's easy to remember. 10 cent for every $100. If you're able to blow $100 with $0.10 then you probably shouldn't trade.
  8. How to avoid reversals. Tbh you can't. There's no way to predict the future so eventually you'll get hit by one. What you can do however is minimize the blow. How I do it is for every pair I take two trades. If you remember in the previous tip is said I do about$0.30 per pair well I divide it 2:1. I take one trade with a TP(2) and one without (1). If my TP is hit I pocket that amount and if the trend keeps going in my direction I make even more. If the trend decides to end or reverses my losses are minimal because at least I kept half.
  9. There is NO right way to trade. Stop listening to people telling the best way to trade is fundamentals or naked charts of to use some specific indicator. There are no right way to do this. It's as flexible and unlimited as your imagination. I personally use indicators but if that's not your thing do YOU! Just remember to manage your trades properly and be level headed when trading. Hell if your trading strategy is flipping a coin with proper trade management you'd probably make some money (don't quote me on that).
  10. Trade money you're willing to lose Don't trade your rent money.
That's all I have for now. If anyone sees this and wants to add more feel free. Hope this helps someone.
submitted by MannyTrade to Forex [link] [comments]

Here are some of the Lazy Trader's forex strategies which are on the daily chart

Here are some of the Lazy Trader's forex strategies which are on the daily chart submitted by Chilltrader to Trading [link] [comments]

The importance of backtesting and sticking to a strategy

Hi all,
I just wanted to share my trading experience with you so far, and maybe help some people who may be in the situation as I am. I started trading about 2-3 months ago. I started with baby pips, opened a demo account, and got cocky a couple weeks into it and made a live account with $100, and every other week or so put $20 extra in. (thank God I didn’t put it more than that). Today, my account stands at around $68, with a total P/L of -$131.76. I have been really uncomfortable losing money, even if it’s not a lot, and that uncomfortableness forced me to realize my mistake.
I thought I could half ass a strategy and be a winner in forex, and the market humbled me extremely quickly. I actually didn’t have a strategy at all. It was a lazy mix of a bunch of different typical strategies I saw on YouTube. I also let my emotions get into trades, after a losing trade I would get back in the market in the opposite direction to try and make up for my loss. All bad, I know. I was too cocky.
Just like anything difficult in life, you cannot half ass forex. I spent all of Friday testing an EXTREMELY simple strategy on 4 major pairs, and out of 93 total trades over the last 6 months, the win rate of my strategy is 73%. From now on, I vow to ONLY make a trade when my strategy presents itself. Moral of the story is, if you think you can half ass forex, you better wake up right now. Find a strategy, backtest it, and only trade said strategy. Have some discipline.
Here is my extremely simple, backtested strategy with a 73% win rate that I got from The Trading Channel on YouTube:
Indicators: 200 EMA
Requirements: 2 wicks IN A ROW that TOUCH the 200 EMA, that have candle bodies that both close above or below the 200 EMA. If both candles close above the 200 EMA, go long. If both candles close below the 200 EMA go short. Stay extremely strict with the rules of the strategy.
Here are the pairs that I have tested this strategy on over the past 6 months, that total a 73% win rate:
-GBP/USD: 18/27 winning trades (67%)
-NZD/USD: 15/27 winning trades (71%)
-EUUSD: 15/20 winning trades (75%)
-EUGBP: 20/25 winning trades (80%)
All backtesting was done on the H1 chart. I tried on the daily and H4 charts but the frequency just wasn’t enough. In the video that I got this strategy from he was trying to highlight the importance of the frequency of your strategy. Even if it may have a really high winning percentage, if it only happens once a year it’s not a good strategy.
Also on a side note, I’ve seen a lot of conflicting opinions on whether or not the US election will effect USD pairs, do you guys think the election will mess with my strategy this upcoming week, or should I just trade my strategy and pay not attention to the results of the election?
Thanks for reading, and happy trading
Sincerely, u/emopatriot
submitted by emopatriot to Forex [link] [comments]

Forex Daily Review: Technical Strategy for the IBEX35 Index

Forex Daily Review: Technical Strategy for the IBEX35 Index submitted by jomarreyes to Forex [link] [comments]

Forex Daily Review: GBP/USD Technical Strategy, H&S Objective Lays at 1.5475

Forex Daily Review: GBP/USD Technical Strategy, H&S Objective Lays at 1.5475 submitted by jomarreyes to Forex [link] [comments]

Max Keiser has opened my eyes to the goals behind the daily stories of international financiers. Gold grabs, currency wars, forex runs he shows the big strategies behind the events.

Max Keiser has opened my eyes to the goals behind the effrots of internetional financiers.
http://rt.com/programs/keiser-report/
He tells you behind the scenes numbers and events that most others don't report .
For instance he has added up all the gold supplies of the euro nations and predicted the debt holders would demand the gold as collateral for the next round of "debt relief" and he was right.
He shows the debt issues for what they are - nothing to do with finance or anything except a legal grab for the hard assets of euro nations.
He also covered the jpmorgan debt backed control of Alabama city water supplies which no one else has made the connection about.
He understands that the finance tools are means to acheive other objectives not the repayment of the debts becuas ehe was a financier.
all the other reporters niavely discuss debt and repayment as if that is the objective.
listen to some of his shows.
his discussions of Jamie dimon and others are extremely enlightening.
He is also the only one who has pointed out that England debt to GDP ratio is 6x worse than the USA when we had the first crisis.
also that it was through London offices becuase of their lax laws that all major crooked financing has occured
Lehman, goldman, Madoff, MFGlobal all had the bad stuff done through london.
just read these show summaries and watch them. yes he is unbridled in his criticism but isn't that GOOD.
http://rt.com/programs/keiser-report/ "12.01.2012 04:00 19 comments Episode 235 ­Every week Max Keiser looks at all the scandal behind the financial news headlines. In this episode, Max Keiser and co-host Stacy Herbert discuss death by a thousand revelations and destroying the City to save the City. In the second half of the show, Max talks to author Nomi Prins, a former investment banker, about the role of JP Morgan in Jon Corzine’s MF Global crime.
10.01.2012 03:00 21 comments Episode 234 ­Every week Max Keiser looks at all the scandal behind the financial news headlines. In this episode, Max Keiser and co-host, Stacy Herbert, discuss copyright and how Hollywood cons Congress by using Wall Street accounting. In the second half of the show, Max talks to Amir Taaki about hackers, piracy, technology and bitcoin. 07.01.2012 09:30 6 comments Episode 233 ­Every week Max Keiser looks at all the scandal behind the financial news headlines. In this episode Max Keiser and co-host, Stacy Herbert, discuss Brits using payday loans to pay off interest-only mortgages while Greeks bury their cash for fear of being Gaddafi’d by the banksters. In the second half of the show, Max talks to David Morgan of Silver-Investor.com about silver, Sprott and bonds.
05.01.2012 04:00 18 comments Episode 232 ­In this episode of the Keiser Report Max Keiser and co-host, Stacy Herbert, discuss big lies, big cojones and the government eating your homework. In the second half of the show, they discuss Obama’s request for $3 from Stacy while signing an order allowing him to indefinitely detain her and the Princeton students mic-checking JP Morgan. 03.01.2012 03:00 19 comments Episode 231 ­This week Max Keiser and co-host, Stacy Herbert, present an Eastern European special looking at Swiss franc mortgages in Hungary, bank runs in Latvia and the wisdom of austerity. In the second half of the show, Max talks to economist, Professor Constantin Gurdgiev, about the outlook for the Russian economy and banking sector in the event of a Eurozone collapse and also about what austerity has...
31.12.2011 09:30 14 comments Episode 230 ­In this episode Max Keiser and co-host, Stacy Herbert, present a New Year’s special featuring outrageous predictions, bloopers and Berlusconi’s 2012 Bunga Bunga Guide to finance. They look back to some 2010 predictions that came true in 2011 and look at the future of European bank runs, rising US treasury yields and the Jim Rogers – Marc Faber Chinese showdown. 28.12.2011 16:53 36 comments Episode 229 ­This week Max Keiser and co-host Stacy Herbert present London brokers shrinking, boycotting JP Morgan, boycotting the financial system and command and control credit derivatives. In the second half of the show, Max talks to JS Kim of SmartknowledgeU about the MF Global fraud, and gold and silver.
27.12.2011 03:00 17 comments Episode 228 ­This week Max Keiser and co-host Stacy Herbert present their bah-humbug special, taking a closer look at claims that the top 1% have more ‘skin’ in the game. They'll also question the intentions of the 'well-meaning' people who drive Kenyans off their land, and could be doing more harm than good with malaria vaccines. They also talk to independent journalist, Thomas C. Mountain, about charity... 24.12.2011 09:30 41 comments Episode 227 This week Max Keiser and co-host, Stacy Herbert, look back on 2011 from GIABO to Tango Down, with the fight against bankster occupation setting the global agenda. From the banking scandal headlines they move to Greek woes, suckling bankers and Blythe Masters’ immaculately conceived Credit Default Swap. They also discuss the circle of Hell that former prosecutor William K. Black suggests is just...
22.12.2011 04:00 15 comments Episode 226 ­This week Max Keiser and co-host, Stacy Herbert, after revealing that the Lizard King is back, discuss the radical redistribution of gold and silver holdings in the US and the radical experiment in the UK to have capitalism without capital. In the second half of the show, Max talks to Professor Steve Keen about the UK’s financial sector debt which is at least four times larger than America’s... "
submitted by georedd to politics [link] [comments]

Here's some trading advice from a fellow trader

I currently manage around half a million dollars and have been trading for 6+ years with 3 years of consistent profitability. Paid for my trading lessons the hard way by losing a lot of money at first. Here's some advice that might help you.
1) Treat trading like a business. I know you probably heard this 100 times before but I feel like I should emphasize this point. Majority of traders overestimate their ability to make money and underestimate their risk exposure.
2) Think long term. The more complex your trading system is, the less freedom it has in terms of flexibility because of too many variables in your analysis. So, keep your trading system simple.
3) Do not rationalize or predict the market. Do not look for comfort in your strategy. In fact, do the reverse. Find comfort in the thought that markets are chaotic and there's always a good chance of you losing a lot of money. This should keep you up on your toes and controls your greed during a profitable streak (You are not a money printing machine, trust me. )
4) Every trade you open should be assumed as a loss. This is very important in terms of having a healthy mindset towards managing risk. I never open a position based on how much money I can make. I do it based on how much I can afford to lose in this particular trade.
5) Biggest mistake I have observed while working with other traders is not doing their homework. If you don't plan your trades before the day even began, then you will develop a mindset of chasing the market which will lead to your downfall. Which brings me to my next point
6) Maintain three things - a) your daily trading notes that you read before you begin trading b) market observation notes which includes particular strategies and observations in specific markets and c) a full fledged trading journal where you record everything you traded. Always remember that majority of your trading work is done when you're not trading.
7) Journaling is the most important and also most neglected part of trading and most traders, including some very good traders do it in a wrong way. How do I know that?
Let me ask you something : Tell me about what kind of trading setups were the most and least profitable in the last 100 trades. Explain them to me in detail including your analysis and opinion on what you think might have happened.
If you can answer this in detail and with specific examples from your last 100 trades then I know you have a good journaling habit. If you cannot , then it's time to improve on your record keeping. Remember that your journals are the only way you can guarantee that you will grow as a trader.
8) Remember this no matter what - Not having a position in the market is itself a position if you know what you are doing. There's no need for you to always trade all day everyday and try to make money. In fact, I can guarantee you that markets will not always behave according to your trading system and during those times trying to "find a needle in a haystack " type of behavior is reckless and will take an emotional toll on your mind. Just sit on the sidelines if the market isn't moving according to your system.
9) There's no thing as overbought or oversold scenarios especially in forex. Heaving a bearish bias because the market moved up by a lot is just ridiculous and most likely guarantee that you miss out on bullish scenarios. If you start developing a bearish bias after a huge bullish move then you better have a damn good reason for it instead of just saying " It moved up by a lot so I'm expecting a reversal".
10) This one is a personal opinion. Always remember to take breaks and relax during the weekends. Managing stress while maintaining performance is a huge part of the job and I don't want you to burn out after a few months of serious trading everyday. Maintain a decent social life outside of trading to keep your sanity intact. Get some hobbies. Your health and well being is very important to your long term performance as a trader so don't neglect it.
submitted by mechz21 to Forex [link] [comments]

[Strategies] Here is My Trading Approach, Thought Process and Execution

Hello everyone. I've noticed a lot of us here are quite secretive about how we trade, especially when we comment on a fellow trader's post. We're quick to tell them what they're doing isn't the "right way" and they should go to babypips or YouTube. There's plenty of strategies we say but never really tell them what is working for us. There's a few others that are open to share their experience and thought processes when considering a valid trade. I have been quite open myself. But I'm always met with the same "well I see what you did is quite solid but what lead you to deem this trade valid for you? "
The answer is quite simple, I have a few things that I consider which are easy rules to follow. I realized that the simpler you make it, the easier it is for you to trade and move on with your day.
I highlight a few "valid" zones and go about my day. I've got an app that alerts me when price enters the zone on my watchlist. This is because I don't just rely on forex trading money, I doubt it would be wise to unless you're trading a 80% win rate strategy. Sometimes opportunities are there and we exploit them accordingly but sometimes we are either distracted by life issues and decide to not go into the markets stressed out or opportunities just aren't there or they are but your golden rules aren't quite met.
My rules are pretty simple, one of the prime golden rules is, "the risk is supposed to be very minimal to the reward I want to yield from that specific trade". i.e I can risk -50 pips for a +150 and more pips gain. My usual target starts at 1:2 but my most satisfying trade would be a 1:3 and above. This way I can lose 6/10 trades and still be profitable.
I make sure to keep my charts clean and simple so to understand what price does without the interference of indicators all over my charts. Not to say if you use indicators for confluence is a complete no-no. Each trader has their own style and I would be a narcissistic asshole if I assumed my way is superior than anybody else's.
NB: I'm doing this for anybody who has a vague or no idea of supply and demand. Everything here has made me profitable or at least break even but doesn't guarantee the same for you. This is just a scratch on the surface so do all you can for due diligence when it comes to understanding this topic with more depth and clear comprehension.
Supply and Demand valid zones properties; what to me makes me think "oh this zone has the potential to make me money, let me put it on my watchlist"? Mind when I say watchlist, not trade it. These are different in this sense.
👉With any zone, you're supposed to watch how price enters the zone, if there's a strong push in the opposite direction or whatever price action you're observing...only then does the zone becomes valid. YOU TRADE THE REACTION, NOT THE EXPECTATION Some setups just fail and that's okay because you didn't gamble. ✍
!!!IMPORTANT SUBJECT TO LEARN BEFORE YOU START SUPPLY AND DEMAND!!!
FTR. Failure to Return.(Please read on these if you haven't. They are extremely important in SnD). Mostly occur after an impulse move from a turning point. See attached examples: RBR(rally base rally)/DBD(drop base drop). They comprise of an initial move to a certain direction, a single candle in the opposite direction and followed by 2 or more strong candles in the initial direction. The opposite candle is your FTR(This is your zone) The first time price comes back(FTB) to a zone with an FTR has high possibilities to be a strong zone.
How to identify high quality zones according to my approach:
  1. Engulfing zones; This is a personal favorite. For less errors I identify the best opportunities using the daily and 4H chart.
On the example given, I chose the GBPNZD trade idea I shared here a month ago I believe. A double bottom is easily identified, with the final push well defined Bullish Engulfing candle. To further solidify it are the strong wicks to show strong rejection and failure to close lower than the left shoulder. How we draw our zone is highlight the whole candle just before the Engulfing Candle. That's your zone. After drawing it, you also pay attention to the price that is right where the engulfing starts. You then set a price alert on your preferred app because usually price won't get there immediately. This is the second most important part of trading, PATIENCE. If you can be disciplined enough to not leave a limit order, or place a market order just because you trust your analysis...you've won half the battle because we're not market predictors, we're students. And we trade the reaction.
On the given example, price had already reached the zone of interest. Price action observed was, there was a rejection that drove it out of the zone, this is the reaction we want. Soon as price returns(retests)...this is your time to fill or kill moment, going to a 4H or 1H to make minimum risk trades. (See GBPNZD Example 1&2)
  1. Liquidity Run; This approach looks very similar to the Engulfing zones. The difference is, price makes a few rejections on a higher timeframe level(Resistance or support). This gives the novice trader an idea that we've established a strong support or resistance, leading to them either selling or buying given the opportunity. Price then breaks that level trapping the support and resistance trader. At this point, breakout traders have stop orders below or above these levels to anticipate a breakout at major levels with stops just below the levels. Now that the market has enough traders trapped, it goes for the stop losses above or below support and resistance levels after taking them out, price comes back into the level to take out breakout traders' stop losses. This is where it has gathered enough liquidity to move it's desired direction.
The given example on the NZDJPY shows a strong level established twice. With the Bearish Engulfing movement, price leaves a supply zone...that's where we come in. We go to smaller timeframes for a well defined entry with our stops above the recent High targeting the next demand zone.
The second screenshot illustrates how high the reward of this approach is as well. Due diligence is required for this kind of approach because it's not uncommon but usually easily misinterpreted, which is why it's important it's on higher timeframes.
You can back test and establish your own rules on this but the RSI in this case was used for confluence. It showed a strong divergence which made it an even easier trade to take.
...and last but definitely not least,
  1. Double Bottom/Top. (I've used double bottoms on examples because these are the only trades I shared here so we'll talk about double bottoms. Same but opposite rules apply on double tops).
The first most important rule here is when you look to your left, price should have made a Low, High and a Lower Low. This way, the last leg(shoulder) should be lower than the first. Some call this "Hidden Zones". When drawing the zones, the top border of the zone is supposed to be on the tip of the Low and covering the Lower Low. **The top border is usually the entry point.
On the first given example I shared this week, NZDCAD. After identifying the structure, you start to look for zones that could further verify the structure for confluence. Since this was identified on the 4H, when you zoom out to the daily chart...there's a very well defined demand zone (RBR). By now you should know how strong these kind of zones are especially if found on higher timeframes. That will now be your kill zone. You'll draw another zone within the bigger zone, if price doesn't close below it...you've got a trade. You'll put your stop losses outside the initial zone to avoid wicks(liquidity runs/stop hunts)
On the second image you'll see how price closed within the zone and rallied upwards towards your targets.
The second example is CHFJPY; although looking lower, there isn't a rally base rally that further solidifies our bias...price still respected the zone. Sometimes we just aren't going to get perfect setups but it is up to us to make calculated risks. In this case, risk is very minimal considering the potential profit.
The third example (EURNZD) was featured because sometimes you just can't always get perfect price action within your desired zone. Which is why it's important to wait for price to close before actually taking a trade. Even if you entered prematurely and were taken out of the trade, the rules are still respected hence a re entry would still yield you more than what you would have lost although revenge trading is wrong.
I hope you guys learnt something new and understand the thought process that leads to deciding which setups to trade from prepared supply and demand trade ideas. It's important to do your own research and back testing that matches your own trading style. I'm more of a swing trader hence I find my zones using the Daily and 4H chart. Keeping it simple and trading the reaction to your watched zone is the most important part about trading any strategy.
Important Note: The trade ideas on this post are trades shared on this sub ever since my being active only because I don't want to share ideas that I may have carefully picked to make my trading approach a blind pick from the millions on the internet. All these were shared here.
Here's a link to the trade ideas analyzed for this post specifically
Questions are welcome on the comments section. Thank you for reading till here.
submitted by SupplyAndDemandGuy to Forex [link] [comments]

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Gold Trading Strategies

I’ve been doing quite a lot of digging around looking for ways to trade gold, I have been mucking around with forex for about 4-5 months now and i’m really trying to buckle down and find a profitable strategy for trading gold.
I love how volatile it is because it leads me to believe that it would be a good pair to trade daily.
I understand there is some correlation between gold and oil prices as well as gold and the USD and the AUD. I just do not understand how to form a proper strategy.
I’m shooting to make 100 pips a day consistently so if anyone has any advice on how I could make this goal a reality it would be more than appreciated.
submitted by Slatcentral to Forex [link] [comments]

Former investment bank FX trader: Risk management part II

Former investment bank FX trader: Risk management part II
Firstly, thanks for the overwhelming comments and feedback. Genuinely really appreciated. I am pleased 500+ of you find it useful.
If you didn't read the first post you can do so here: risk management part I. You'll need to do so in order to make sense of the topic.
As ever please comment/reply below with questions or feedback and I'll do my best to get back to you.
Part II
  • Letting stops breathe
  • When to change a stop
  • Entering and exiting winning positions
  • Risk:reward ratios
  • Risk-adjusted returns

Letting stops breathe

We talked earlier about giving a position enough room to breathe so it is not stopped out in day-to-day noise.
Let’s consider the chart below and imagine you had a trailing stop. It would be super painful to miss out on the wider move just because you left a stop that was too tight.

Imagine being long and stopped out on a meaningless retracement ... ouch!
One simple technique is simply to look at your chosen chart - let’s say daily bars. And then look at previous trends and use the measuring tool. Those generally look something like this and then you just click and drag to measure.
For example if we wanted to bet on a downtrend on the chart above we might look at the biggest retracement on the previous uptrend. That max drawdown was about 100 pips or just under 1%. So you’d want your stop to be able to withstand at least that.
If market conditions have changed - for example if CVIX has risen - and daily ranges are now higher you should incorporate that. If you know a big event is coming up you might think about that, too. The human brain is a remarkable tool and the power of the eye-ball method is not to be dismissed. This is how most discretionary traders do it.
There are also more analytical approaches.
Some look at the Average True Range (ATR). This attempts to capture the volatility of a pair, typically averaged over a number of sessions. It looks at three separate measures and takes the largest reading. Think of this as a moving average of how much a pair moves.
For example, below shows the daily move in EURUSD was around 60 pips before spiking to 140 pips in March. Conditions were clearly far more volatile in March. Accordingly, you would need to leave your stop further away in March and take a correspondingly smaller position size.

ATR is available on pretty much all charting systems
Professional traders tend to use standard deviation as a measure of volatility instead of ATR. There are advantages and disadvantages to both. Averages are useful but can be misleading when regimes switch (see above chart).
Once you have chosen a measure of volatility, stop distance can then be back-tested and optimised. For example does 2x ATR work best or 5x ATR for a given style and time horizon?
Discretionary traders may still eye-ball the ATR or standard deviation to get a feeling for how it has changed over time and what ‘normal’ feels like for a chosen study period - daily, weekly, monthly etc.

Reasons to change a stop

As a general rule you should be disciplined and not change your stops. Remember - losers average losers. This is really hard at first and we’re going to look at that in more detail later.
There are some good reasons to modify stops but they are rare.
One reason is if another risk management process demands you stop trading and close positions. We’ll look at this later. In that case just close out your positions at market and take the loss/gains as they are.
Another is event risk. If you have some big upcoming data like Non Farm Payrolls that you know can move the market +/- 150 pips and you have no edge going into the release then many traders will take off or scale down their positions. They’ll go back into the positions when the data is out and the market has quietened down after fifteen minutes or so. This is a matter of some debate - many traders consider it a coin toss and argue you win some and lose some and it all averages out.
Trailing stops can also be used to ‘lock in’ profits. We looked at those before. As the trade moves in your favour (say up if you are long) the stop loss ratchets with it. This means you may well end up ‘stopping out’ at a profit - as per the below example.

The mighty trailing stop loss order
It is perfectly reasonable to have your stop loss move in the direction of PNL. This is not exposing you to more risk than you originally were comfortable with. It is taking less and less risk as the trade moves in your favour. Trend-followers in particular love trailing stops.
One final question traders ask is what they should do if they get stopped out but still like the trade. Should they try the same trade again a day later for the same reasons? Nope. Look for a different trade rather than getting emotionally wed to the original idea.
Let’s say a particular stock looked cheap based on valuation metrics yesterday, you bought, it went down and you got stopped out. Well, it is going to look even better on those same metrics today. Maybe the market just doesn’t respect value at the moment and is driven by momentum. Wait it out.
Otherwise, why even have a stop in the first place?

Entering and exiting winning positions

Take profits are the opposite of stop losses. They are also resting orders, left with the broker, to automatically close your position if it reaches a certain price.
Imagine I’m long EURUSD at 1.1250. If it hits a previous high of 1.1400 (150 pips higher) I will leave a sell order to take profit and close the position.
The rookie mistake on take profits is to take profit too early. One should start from the assumption that you will win on no more than half of your trades. Therefore you will need to ensure that you win more on the ones that work than you lose on those that don’t.

Sad to say but incredibly common: retail traders often take profits way too early
This is going to be the exact opposite of what your emotions want you to do. We are going to look at that in the Psychology of Trading chapter.
Remember: let winners run. Just like stops you need to know in advance the level where you will close out at a profit. Then let the trade happen. Don’t override yourself and let emotions force you to take a small profit. A classic mistake to avoid.
The trader puts on a trade and it almost stops out before rebounding. As soon as it is slightly in the money they spook and cut out, instead of letting it run to their original take profit. Do not do this.

Entering positions with limit orders

That covers exiting a position but how about getting into one?
Take profits can also be left speculatively to enter a position. Sometimes referred to as “bids” (buy orders) or “offers” (sell orders). Imagine the price is 1.1250 and the recent low is 1.1205.
You might wish to leave a bid around 1.2010 to enter a long position, if the market reaches that price. This way you don’t need to sit at the computer and wait.
Again, typically traders will use tech analysis to identify attractive levels. Again - other traders will cluster with your orders. Just like the stop loss we need to bake that in.
So this time if we know everyone is going to buy around the recent low of 1.1205 we might leave the take profit bit a little bit above there at 1.1210 to ensure it gets done. Sure it costs 5 more pips but how mad would you be if the low was 1.1207 and then it rallied a hundred points and you didn’t have the trade on?!
There are two more methods that traders often use for entering a position.
Scaling in is one such technique. Let’s imagine that you think we are in a long-term bulltrend for AUDUSD but experiencing a brief retracement. You want to take a total position of 500,000 AUD and don’t have a strong view on the current price action.
You might therefore leave a series of five bids of 100,000. As the price moves lower each one gets hit. The nice thing about scaling in is it reduces pressure on you to pick the perfect level. Of course the risk is that not all your orders get hit before the price moves higher and you have to trade at-market.
Pyramiding is the second technique. Pyramiding is for take profits what a trailing stop loss is to regular stops. It is especially common for momentum traders.

Pyramiding into a position means buying more as it goes in your favour
Again let’s imagine we’re bullish AUDUSD and want to take a position of 500,000 AUD.
Here we add 100,000 when our first signal is reached. Then we add subsequent clips of 100,000 when the trade moves in our favour. We are waiting for confirmation that the move is correct.
Obviously this is quite nice as we humans love trading when it goes in our direction. However, the drawback is obvious: we haven’t had the full amount of risk on from the start of the trend.
You can see the attractions and drawbacks of both approaches. It is best to experiment and choose techniques that work for your own personal psychology as these will be the easiest for you to stick with and build a disciplined process around.

Risk:reward and win ratios

Be extremely skeptical of people who claim to win on 80% of trades. Most traders will win on roughly 50% of trades and lose on 50% of trades. This is why risk management is so important!
Once you start keeping a trading journal you’ll be able to see how the win/loss ratio looks for you. Until then, assume you’re typical and that every other trade will lose money.
If that is the case then you need to be sure you make more on the wins than you lose on the losses. You can see the effect of this below.

A combination of win % and risk:reward ratio determine if you are profitable
A typical rule of thumb is that a ratio of 1:3 works well for most traders.
That is, if you are prepared to risk 100 pips on your stop you should be setting a take profit at a level that would return you 300 pips.
One needn’t be religious about these numbers - 11 pips and 28 pips would be perfectly fine - but they are a guideline.
Again - you should still use technical analysis to find meaningful chart levels for both the stop and take profit. Don’t just blindly take your stop distance and do 3x the pips on the other side as your take profit. Use the ratio to set approximate targets and then look for a relevant resistance or support level in that kind of region.

Risk-adjusted returns

Not all returns are equal. Suppose you are examining the track record of two traders. Now, both have produced a return of 14% over the year. Not bad!
The first trader, however, made hundreds of small bets throughout the year and his cumulative PNL looked like the left image below.
The second trader made just one bet — he sold CADJPY at the start of the year — and his PNL looked like the right image below with lots of large drawdowns and volatility.
Would you rather have the first trading record or the second?
If you were investing money and betting on who would do well next year which would you choose? Of course all sensible people would choose the first trader. Yet if you look only at returns one cannot distinguish between the two. Both are up 14% at that point in time. This is where the Sharpe ratio helps .
A high Sharpe ratio indicates that a portfolio has better risk-adjusted performance. One cannot sensibly compare returns without considering the risk taken to earn that return.
If I can earn 80% of the return of another investor at only 50% of the risk then a rational investor should simply leverage me at 2x and enjoy 160% of the return at the same level of risk.
This is very important in the context of Execution Advisor algorithms (EAs) that are popular in the retail community. You must evaluate historic performance by its risk-adjusted return — not just the nominal return. Incidentally look at the Sharpe ratio of ones that have been live for a year or more ...
Otherwise an EA developer could produce two EAs: the first simply buys at 1000:1 leverage on January 1st ; and the second sells in the same manner. At the end of the year, one of them will be discarded and the other will look incredible. Its risk-adjusted return, however, would be abysmal and the odds of repeated success are similarly poor.

Sharpe ratio

The Sharpe ratio works like this:
  • It takes the average returns of your strategy;
  • It deducts from these the risk-free rate of return i.e. the rate anyone could have got by investing in US government bonds with very little risk;
  • It then divides this total return by its own volatility - the more smooth the return the higher and better the Sharpe, the more volatile the lower and worse the Sharpe.
For example, say the return last year was 15% with a volatility of 10% and US bonds are trading at 2%. That gives (15-2)/10 or a Sharpe ratio of 1.3. As a rule of thumb a Sharpe ratio of above 0.5 would be considered decent for a discretionary retail trader. Above 1 is excellent.
You don’t really need to know how to calculate Sharpe ratios. Good trading software will do this for you. It will either be available in the system by default or you can add a plug-in.

VAR

VAR is another useful measure to help with drawdowns. It stands for Value at Risk. Normally people will use 99% VAR (conservative) or 95% VAR (aggressive). Let’s say you’re long EURUSD and using 95% VAR. The system will look at the historic movement of EURUSD. It might spit out a number of -1.2%.

A 5% VAR of -1.2% tells you you should expect to lose 1.2% on 5% of days, whilst 95% of days should be better than that
This means it is expected that on 5 days out of 100 (hence the 95%) the portfolio will lose 1.2% or more. This can help you manage your capital by taking appropriately sized positions. Typically you would look at VAR across your portfolio of trades rather than trade by trade.
Sharpe ratios and VAR don’t give you the whole picture, though. Legendary fund manager, Howard Marks of Oaktree, notes that, while tools like VAR and Sharpe ratios are helpful and absolutely necessary, the best investors will also overlay their own judgment.
Investors can calculate risk metrics like VaR and Sharpe ratios (we use them at Oaktree; they’re the best tools we have), but they shouldn’t put too much faith in them. The bottom line for me is that risk management should be the responsibility of every participant in the investment process, applying experience, judgment and knowledge of the underlying investments.Howard Marks of Oaktree Capital
What he’s saying is don’t misplace your common sense. Do use these tools as they are helpful. However, you cannot fully rely on them. Both assume a normal distribution of returns. Whereas in real life you get “black swans” - events that should supposedly happen only once every thousand years but which actually seem to happen fairly often.
These outlier events are often referred to as “tail risk”. Don’t make the mistake of saying “well, the model said…” - overlay what the model is telling you with your own common sense and good judgment.

Coming up in part III

Available here
Squeezes and other risks
Market positioning
Bet correlation
Crap trades, timeouts and monthly limits

***
Disclaimer:This content is not investment advice and you should not place any reliance on it. The views expressed are the author's own and should not be attributed to any other person, including their employer.
submitted by getmrmarket to Forex [link] [comments]

Some trading wisdom, tools and information I picked up along the way that helped me be a better trader. Maybe it can help you too.

Its a bit lengthy and I tried to condense it as much as I can. So take everything at a high level as each subject is has a lot more depth but fundamentally if you distill it down its just taking simple things and applying your experience using them to add nuance and better deploy them.
There are exceptions to everything that you will learn with experience or have already learned. If you know something extra or something to add to it to implement it better or more accurately. Then great! However, my intention of this post is just a high level overview. Trading can be far too nuanced to go into in this post and would take forever to type up every exception (not to mention the traders individual personality). If you take the general information as a starting point, hopefully you will learn the edge cases long the way and learn how to use the more effectively if you end up using them. I apologize in advice for any errors or typos.
Introduction After reflecting on my fun (cough) trading journey that was more akin to rolling around on broken glass and wondering if brown glass will help me predict market direction better than green glass. Buying a $100 indicator at 2 am when I was acting a fool, looking at it and going at and going "This is a piece of lagging crap, I miss out on a large part of the fundamental move and never using it for even one trade". All while struggling with massive over trading and bad habits because I would get bored watching a single well placed trade on fold for the day. Also, I wanted to get rich quick.
On top all of that I had a terminal Stage 4 case of FOMO on every time the price would move up and then down then back up. Just think about all those extra pips I could have trading both directions as it moves across the chart! I can just sell right when it goes down, then buy right before it goes up again. Its so easy right? Well, turns out it was not as easy as I thought and I lost a fair chunk of change and hit my head against the wall a lot until it clicked. Which is how I came up with a mixed bag of things that I now call "Trade the Trade" which helped support how I wanted to trade so I can still trade intra day price action like a rabid money without throwing away all my bananas.
Why Make This Post? - Core Topic of Discussion I wish to share a concept I came up with that helped me become a reliable trader. Support the weakness of how I like to trade. Also, explaining what I do helps reinforce my understanding of the information I share as I have to put words to it and not just use internalized processes. I came up with a method that helped me get my head straight when trading intra day.
I call it "Trade the Trade" as I am making mini trades inside of a trade setup I make from analysis on a higher timeframe that would take multiple days to unfold or longer. I will share information, principles, techniques I used and learned from others I talked to on the internet (mixed bag of folks from armatures to professionals, and random internet people) that helped me form a trading style that worked for me. Even people who are not good at trading can say something that might make it click in your head so I would absorbed all the information I could get.I will share the details of how I approach the methodology and the tools in my trading belt that I picked up by filtering through many tools, indicators strategies and witchcraft. Hopefully you read something that ends up helping you be a better trader. I learned a lot from people who make community posts so I wanted to give back now that I got my ducks in a row.
General Trading Advice If your struggling finding your own trading style, fixing weakness's in it, getting started, being reliably profitable or have no framework to build yourself higher with, hopefully you can use the below advice to help provide some direction or clarity to moving forward to be a better trader.
  1. KEEP IT SIMPLE. Do not throw a million things on your chart from the get go or over analyzing what the market is doing while trying to learn the basics. Tons of stuff on your chart can actually slow your learning by distracting your focus on all your bells and whistles and not the price action.
  2. PRICE ACTION. Learn how to read price action. Not just the common formations, but larger groups of bars that form the market structure. Those formations carry more weight the higher the time frame they form on. If struggle to understand what is going on or what your looking at, move to a higher time frame.
  3. INDICATORS. If you do use them you should try to understand how every indicator you use calculates its values. Many indicators are lagging indicators, understanding how it calculates the values can help you learn how to identify the market structure before the indicator would trigger a signal . This will help you understand why the signal is a lagged signal. If you understand that you can easily learn to look at the price action right before the signal and learn to watch for that price action on top of it almost trigging a signal so you can get in at a better position and assume less downside risk. I recommend using no more than 1-2 indicators for simplicity, but your free to use as many as you think you think you need or works for your strategy/trading style.
  4. PSYCOLOGY. First, FOMO is real, don't feed the beast. When you trade you should always have an entry and exit. If you miss your entry do not chase it, wait for a new entry. At its core trading is gambling and your looking for an edge against the house (the other market participants). With that in mind, treat as such. Do not risk more than you can afford to lose. If you are afraid to lose it will negatively effect your trade decisions. Finally, be honest with your self and bad trading happens. No one is going to play trade cop and keep you in line, that's your job.
  5. TRADE DECISION MARKING: Before you enter any trade you should have an entry and exit area. As you learn price action you will get better entries and better exits. Use a larger zone and stop loss at the start while learning. Then you can tighten it up as you gain experience. If you do not have a area you wish to exit, or you are entering because "the markets looking like its gonna go up". Do not enter the trade. Have a reason for everything you do, if you cannot logically explain why then you probably should not be doing it.
  6. ROBOTS/ALGOS: Loved by some, hated by many who lost it all to one, and surrounded by scams on the internet. If you make your own, find a legit one that works and paid for it or lost it all on a crappy one, more power to ya. I do not use robots because I do not like having a robot in control of my money. There is too many edge cases for me to be ok with it.However, the best piece of advice about algos was that the guy had a algo/robot for each market condition (trending/ranging) and would make personalized versions of each for currency pairs as each one has its own personality and can make the same type of movement along side another currency pair but the price action can look way different or the move can be lagged or leading. So whenever he does his own analysis and he sees a trend, he turns the trend trading robot on. If the trend stops, and it starts to range he turns the range trading robot on. He uses robots to trade the market types that he is bad at trading. For example, I suck at trend trading because I just suck at sitting on my hands and letting my trade do its thing.

Trade the Trade - The Methodology

Base Principles These are the base principles I use behind "Trade the Trade". Its called that because you are technically trading inside your larger high time frame trade as it hopefully goes as you have analyzed with the trade setup. It allows you to scratch that intraday trading itch, while not being blind to the bigger market at play. It can help make sense of why the price respects, rejects or flat out ignores support/resistance/pivots.
  1. Trade Setup: Find a trade setup using high level time frames (daily, 4hr, or 1hr time frames). The trade setup will be used as a base for starting to figure out a bias for the markets direction for that day.
  2. Indicator Data: Check any indicators you use (I use Stochastic RSI and Relative Vigor Index) for any useful information on higher timeframes.
  3. Support Resistance: See if any support/resistance/pivot points are in currently being tested/resisted by the price. Also check for any that are within reach so they might become in play through out the day throughout the day (which can influence your bias at least until the price reaches it if it was already moving that direction from previous days/weeks price action).
  4. Currency Strength/Weakness: I use the TradeVision currency strength/weakness dashboard to see if the strength/weakness supports the narrative of my trade and as an early indicator when to keep a closer eye for signs of the price reversing.Without the tool, the same concept can be someone accomplished with fundamentals and checking for higher level trends and checking cross currency pairs for trends as well to indicate strength/weakness, ranging (and where it is in that range) or try to get some general bias from a higher level chart that may help you out. However, it wont help you intra day unless your monitoring the currency's index or a bunch of charts related to the currency.
  5. Watch For Trading Opportunities: Personally I make a mental short list and alerts on TradingView of currency pairs that are close to key levels and so I get a notification if it reaches there so I can check it out. I am not against trading both directions, I just try to trade my bias before the market tries to commit to a direction. Then if I get out of that trade I will scalp against the trend of the day and hold trades longer that are with it.Then when you see a opportunity assume the directional bias you made up earlier (unless the market solidly confirms with price action the direction while waiting for an entry) by trying to look for additional confirmation via indicators, price action on support/resistances etc on the low level time frame or higher level ones like hourly/4hr as the day goes on when the price reaches key areas or makes new market structures to get a good spot to enter a trade in the direction of your bias.Then enter your trade and use the market structures to determine how much of a stop you need. Once your in the trade just monitor it and watch the price action/indicators/tools you use to see if its at risk of going against you. If you really believe the market wont reach your TP and looks like its going to turn against you, then close the trade. Don't just hold on to it for principle and let it draw down on principle or the hope it does not hit your stop loss.
  6. Trade Duration Hold your trades as long or little as you want that fits your personality and trading style/trade analysis. Personally I do not hold trades past the end of the day (I do in some cases when a strong trend folds) and I do not hold trades over the weekends. My TP targets are always places I think it can reach within the day. Typically I try to be flat before I sleep and trade intra day price movements only. Just depends on the higher level outlook, I have to get in at really good prices for me to want to hold a trade and it has to be going strong. Then I will set a slightly aggressive stop on it before I leave. I do know several people that swing trade and hold trades for a long period of time. That is just not a trading style that works for me.
Enhance Your Success Rate Below is information I picked up over the years that helped me enhance my success rate with not only guessing intra day market bias (even if it has not broken into the trend for the day yet (aka pre London open when the end of Asia likes to act funny sometimes), but also with trading price action intra day.
People always say "When you enter a trade have an entry and exits. I am of the belief that most people do not have problem with the entry, its the exit. They either hold too long, or don't hold long enough. With the below tools, drawings, or instruments, hopefully you can increase your individual probability of a successful trade.
**P.S.*\* Your mileage will vary depending on your ability to correctly draw, implement and interpret the below items. They take time and practice to implement with a high degree of proficiency. If you have any questions about how to do that with anything listed, comment below and I will reply as I can. I don't want to answer the same question a million times in a pm.
Tools and Methods Used This is just a high level overview of what I use. Each one of the actions I could go way more in-depth on but I would be here for a week typing something up of I did that. So take the information as a base level understanding of how I use the method or tool. There is always nuance and edge cases that you learn from experience.
Conclusion
I use the above tools/indicators/resources/philosophy's to trade intra day price action that sometimes ends up as noise in the grand scheme of the markets movement.use that method until the price action for the day proves the bias assumption wrong. Also you can couple that with things like Stoch RSI + Relative Vigor Index to find divergences which can increase the probability of your targeted guesses.

Trade Example from Yesterday This is an example of a trade I took today and why I took it. I used the following core areas to make my trade decision.
It may seem like a lot of stuff to process on the fly while trying to figure out live price action but, for the fundamental bias for a pair should already baked in your mindset for any currency pair you trade. For the currency strength/weakness I stare at the dashboard 12-15 hours a day so I am always trying to keep a pulse on what's going or shifts so that's not really a factor when I want to enter as I would not look to enter if I felt the market was shifting against me. Then the higher timeframe analysis had already happened when I woke up, so it was a game of "Stare at the 5 min chart until the price does something interesting"
Trade Example: Today , I went long EUUSD long bias when I first looked at the chart after waking up around 9-10pm Eastern. Fortunately, the first large drop had already happened so I had a easy baseline price movement to work with. I then used tool for currency strength/weakness monitoring, Pivot Points, and bearish divergence detected using Stochastic RSI and Relative Vigor Index.
I first noticed Bearish Divergence on the 1hr time frame using the Stochastic RSI and got confirmation intra day on the 5 min time frame with the Relative Vigor Index. I ended up buying the second mini dip around midnight Eastern because it was already dancing along the pivot point that the price had been dancing along since the big drop below the pivot point and dipped below it and then shortly closed back above it. I put a stop loss below the first large dip. With a TP goal of the middle point pivot line
Then I waited for confirmation or invalidation of my trade. I ended up getting confirmation with Bearish Divergence from the second large dip so I tightened up my stop to below that smaller drip and waited for the London open. Not only was it not a lower low, I could see the divergence with the Relative Vigor Index.
It then ran into London and kept going with tons of momentum. Blew past my TP target so I let it run to see where the momentum stopped. Ended up TP'ing at the Pivot Point support/resistance above the middle pivot line.
Random Note: The Asian session has its own unique price action characteristics that happen regularly enough that you can easily trade them when they happen with high degrees of success. It takes time to learn them all and confidently trade them as its happening. If you trade Asia you should learn to recognize them as they can fake you out if you do not understand what's going on.

TL;DR At the end of the day there is no magic solution that just works. You have to find out what works for you and then what people say works for them. Test it out and see if it works for you or if you can adapt it to work for you. If it does not work or your just not interested then ignore it.
At the end of the day, you have to use your brain to make correct trading decisions. Blindly following indicators may work sometimes in certain market conditions, but trading with information you don't understand can burn you just as easily as help you. Its like playing with fire. So, get out there and grind it out. It will either click or it wont. Not everyone has the mindset or is capable of changing to be a successful trader. Trading is gambling, you do all this work to get a edge on the house. Trading without the edge or an edge you understand how to use will only leave your broker happy in the end.
submitted by marcusrider to Forex [link] [comments]

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